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What’s the prior probability of a hypothesis being true in #psychology?

* Dreber et al (2015; 10.1073/pnas.1516179112) give an estimate of 9%.

* Wilson & Wixted (2018; 10.1177/2515245918767122) estimate 6-10% for social psych and 27% for cognitive psych.

Are there any other papers estimating this quantity?

(Asking for our #MetaScience project, where we want to calibrate our agent based model #ABM of academia.)

CC @uebernerd @briannosek @tomhardwicke @EJWagenmakers
#Bayes #metaRep